NFL Week 16 - DFS Values & Plays

Take advantage of the percentage a player is owned! The higher a player's exposure, the better you have to be at choosing other positions. Try to mix in different exposures to create your own unique lineup. Previous millionaire winners have a total ownership percentage of 100.56% each week, and the range between 75%-125% is recommended to increase your chances of winning.

QB: Tua Tagovailoa, $5,200

Tua Tagovailoa sets up as one of the best QB value plays on the slate this week despite coming off a rough Monday night showing. That performance should keep ownership in check, but this is a perfect bounce-back spot against a Cincinnati defense that’s completely out of sync right now. Even Lamar Jackson was able to find success against the Bengals, and this unit has consistently struggled with coverage busts, speed on the perimeter, and defending timing-based passing attacks — all areas where Miami excels. Whether this game turns into a shootout or the Dolphins control it from the start, Tua should be able to move the ball efficiently and rack up fantasy points.

RB: Tony Pollard, $5,400

There aren’t many strong value options at running back this week, so taking a calculated shot on Tony Pollard makes a lot of sense in tournaments. On the surface, the matchup looks brutal against a top-five run defense, which should naturally keep his ownership extremely low. But this is a unique situational spot: the Chiefs were just eliminated, Mahomes is dealing with a torn ACL, and the overall vibes around this team are about as bad as it gets. With Minshew under center, the offense is likely to be inefficient, setting up the Titans with extra possessions and favorable field position. That type of game environment can quietly funnel volume and scoring chances to Pollard, making him an intriguing leverage play in what could be the ultimate flat spot for Kansas City.

WR: Keenan Allen, $4,800

   My WR value this week is Keenan Allen, who continues to offer one of the safest volume profiles at a bargain price. He’s seeing consistent usage and now draws a matchup against a porous Dallas pass defense that has been vulnerable through the air. Allen is one of the cheapest wide receivers on the slate you can realistically project for around seven targets, and that baseline alone makes him attractive in DFS. Both the Chargers and Cowboys are fighting to stay alive in the wild card race, setting up a game environment that could easily turn into a shootout. At under $5K, Allen isn’t just a strong WR value — he’s one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the entire slate regardless of position.

TE: Dalton Schultz, $4,200

   Dalton Schultz is my TE value this week and it’s hard to ask for a better combination of role, matchup, and reliability at the position. He’s been a true target machine all season and now gets to face a Raiders defense that’s among the worst in the league. With the Texans’ wide receivers being wildly inconsistent, Schultz has become the much-needed safety valve in this offense, especially in high-leverage situations. He currently sits top five among tight ends in both targets and receptions, which is elite usage for a position that’s usually a guessing game. If Houston does what it’s expected to do and puts points up early, Schultz will absolutely have his turn with the beating stick in a game where the Raiders are likely to get blasted.

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