NFL Week 15 - Underdog Picks
- Ben Bentley
- Dec 13, 2025
- 3 min read
When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link at the bottom of this article to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
Ja'Marr Chase HIGHER THAN 79.5 TDs
To be safe i juiced this number down to feel light for a matchup that consistently turns into a shootout. Ja’Marr Chase has torched Baltimore in recent history, clearing 100 receiving yards in each of his last three games against the Ravens, and this version of the Ravens defense is far from intimidating. They rank as the 7th-worst pass defense in the league, which is actually an improvement from how poorly they opened the season. With Tee Higgins sidelined, the Bengals’ offense naturally condenses around the Burrow-to-Chase connection even more, and we’ve seen time and time again that when Cincinnati needs to move the ball, Chase is the engine. Expect heavy volume, downfield shots, and another game script that forces Burrow to air it out. Anything under 80 yards for Chase in this spot is asking to be taken advantage of.
Jalen Hurts LOWER THAN 0.5 Interceptions
This is PropsBotAI’s most confident pick of the day, and the context actually makes it even stronger. Hurts is coming off an ugly turnover-filled performance with 5 total turnovers and 4 interceptions, which is exactly why this spot sets up as a correction game. Ball security has clearly been a point of emphasis this week, and against a lowly Raiders team, Philadelphia has no reason to force the issue through the air. Expect a run-heavy game plan, controlled reads, and plenty of clock-killing drives that keep Hurts out of risky situations. The Eagles can win this game comfortably by leaning on the ground game, which drastically limits interception opportunities. This line is more about trusting the game script than chasing recency bias—and everything points to a clean, mistake-free outing.
Tyler Warren HIGHER THAN 3.5 Receptions
With Daniel Jones no longer under center, the first question people will ask is who’s throwing him the ball? Honestly—who cares. This is a matchup and game-script play. The Seahawks are one of the best teams in the league at shutting down the run, and with a new quarterback making his first start in 2025, it’s far more likely we see quick, safe throws rather than aggressive perimeter shots into a strong secondary. That sets up perfectly for Tyler Warren as the primary safety valve over the middle of the field. Expect short, high-percentage targets designed to keep the offense on schedule while also trying to loosen things up for Jonathan Taylor. Four catches is a low bar in a spot where volume and comfort reads should be the priority.
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