NFL Week 14 - Underdog Picks
- Ben Bentley
- Dec 6, 2025
- 3 min read
When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link at the bottom of this article to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
RJ Harvey HIGHER THAN 0.5 TDs
RJ Harvey is a strong bet to find the end zone this week against a Raiders defense giving up the 3rd-most rushing touchdowns in the league (1.3 per game). PropsBot isn’t fully aligned on this one, but the matchup context screams opportunity. Las Vegas is playing bottom-of-the-barrel football right now, turning the ball over, gifting short fields, and giving opponents extra possessions. The last time these teams met it ended in an ugly 10–7 slugfest, but this game profiles completely differently — Denver is set up to blow out the Raiders in their own building, and that game script favors a power runner like Harvey. Inside the five, he will own the touches, and in a matchup this soft, one touchdown feels like the floor.
Chase Brown HIGHER THAN 47.5 Rush Yards
Chase Brown over 47.5 rushing yards is one of the cleaner value spots on the slate — Underdog is gifting us a number that’s four yards lower than the sportsbooks, and we’ll gladly take it. Brown walks into this matchup as the clear starting RB against a Buffalo defense that ranks as the 3rd-worst in rushing yards allowed and is bleeding 5.2 yards per carry. This game has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout, and Brown is too explosive to stay quiet in that kind of environment. With volume on his side and with a prime matchup working in his favor, hitting 48+ yards feels extremely attainable.
Josh Allen HIGHER THAN 230.5 Pass Yards
Josh Allen over 230.5 passing yards is another spot where we’re capitalizing on a 4-yard discount from Underdog, and it’s simply too good to ignore. Let’s be real — Cincinnati is the worst pass defense in the NFL, and Allen is easily one of the best quarterbacks in the league. This matchup is shaping up to be a fireworks show, and Allen should be flirting with 300 yards in a game script that demands constant scoring. Add in the fact that this is a comfortable home game for him, and everything lines up for Allen to deliver for us in a big way.
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