NFL Week 11 - Underdog Picks
- Ben Bentley
- Nov 15, 2025
- 3 min read
When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win. We have also partnered with my friend David, the creator of PropsBot.AI, to bring you picks that I like personally and are backed up by data driven insights! Click the link at the bottom of this article to get a free 10-Day trial of PropsBot.AI and find more picks and values for yourself!
Brock Purdy LOWER THAN 22.5 Completions
Brock Purdy’s under 22.5 completions is PropsBotAI’s most confident pick for Sunday, and the data backs it up. This will be Purdy’s first game back since Week 4, and he’s logged only two games all season, so rust and limited rhythm are real concerns. He draws a divisional opponent that knows him well, a matchup type that historically keeps his volume in check. The 49ers are still dealing with key injuries, which further caps the passing game’s efficiency and overall play count. Even when fully healthy, Purdy has been an inconsistent volume passer—he has stayed under this number in 65% of his last 20 games, hitting 23+ completions just 35% of the time. All signs point to a conservative return and a strong edge on the under.
Josh Allen HIGHER THAN 1.5 Passing TDs
Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like a perfect buy-low spot after the Bills’ embarrassing loss to Miami. With the public backing off because of the Kincaid injury, this sets up as the exact moment Allen usually reminds everyone why he’s elite. Buffalo is in a clear bounce-back script, and Allen has always thrived when the narrative swings against him. He now gets a matchup with Baker Mayfield on the other sideline, a setup that screams shootout potential and could turn into a barn burner quickly. In high-tempo, high-pressure games like this, Allen historically leans on his arm to take over. With motivation, matchup, and game environment all pointing the same direction, this is a strong spot for Allen to hit two or more passing scores.
Cade Otton HIGHER THAN 3.5 Receptions
Cade Otton over 3.5 receptions is another strong spot, especially given how consistently he’s cleared this line. He’s hit 4+ catches in five straight games, fueled by the Buccaneers’ ongoing injury issues that have funneled targets his way. With Bucky Irving ruled out again, Tampa Bay will lean heavily on its short-to-intermediate passing game to keep the offense on schedule. And in a matchup where the Bucs will need to move the ball and score to keep pace with Buffalo, Otton profiles as a reliable safety valve for Mayfield. The volume should be there once again, making this a dependable over.
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