Ethan's Premium Picks

Welcome to a revamped article of Ethan's Premium Picks. We have located a 5u MAX bet in the MLB on Thursday, August 21st, and cannot pass up this spot. This is my favorite MLB bet not only this season, but in my entire life, and I don't say that lightly. We have identified a play that has both play on scenarios, as well as play against. This play is taylor made for a max bet and I am really looking forward to cashing. We have hit our last 4 MLB plays, all at + money (+125, +120, +235, +170) and are looking to continue the positive momentum with a stepped up wager.

Source: Sports Illustrated

B. Young (BAL) Under 16.5 Outs -112 (1u):

For my free play, I am looking to play Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young under his outs prop. I am writing this article on Wednesday afternoon and don't see his outs props listed, however, I expect it to be around 16.5. We are looking to fade Young off a gem of a start last time out. We saw the right handed rookie take a perfect game into the 8th inning before giving up a 2 out infield single late in the game to blow his chance at a perfect game. Young threw 93 pitches in the extended outing en route to a 7-0 win against the Astros. Before that gem of a start, Young had been tattooed for the majority of his rookie campaign. Even after his near perfect game, he is just 1-6 on the season with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. He's only taken one other game this season past 5 innings and that was in late July. His prior 2 starts in August saw him go just a combined 7.2 innings with 11 hits and 6 earned runs allowed. After going deep into last week's game and having an added work load in throwing 93 pitches, I expect Young to be taxed coming into this one. He faces that same Astros lineup which should be able to adjust and get some hits off of Young. Look to play a unit on Brandon Young under his outs prop on Thursday night. Consider becoming a premium member to access my 5u MAX MLB bet and write up below. You will not want to miss this play.

Source: MLB.com

HOU ML -103 (5u):

This is my favorite play from a situational standpoint that I have ever seen in the MLB. Major bet on qualities for the Astros, many bet against for the Orioles. This warrants a max bet, let's get into it. For starters, I mentioned Brandon Young above in our free play. I expect Young to regress back to his norm and get absolutely blasted early and often in this game. The fact that he has to pitch to the same lineup that he just pitched a gem against does not bode well for the rookie. He should only last 3-4 innings at most. On the flip side, we have Jason Alexander slated to start for the Astros. Alexander is 3-1 on the season with a 2.63 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In his most recent outing against these Orioles, he pitched 6 innings of work, giving up 3 hits and 2 earned runs. In his previous 2 starts in the month of August, he pitched a combined 12 innings and gave up 4 hits and 0 earned runs. Alexander is in good control of his pitches right now and I expect that to continue on Thursday evening. When it comes to the bullpens, there is a clear edge for Houston as they will have rested arms after not having to utilize their bullpen on Wednesday afternoon. The Orioles will have a fairly rested bullpen as well with their day off, however, they had to burn some arms in an extra inning win on Tuesday in Boston. Regardless, I have Baltimores bullpen ranked in the bottom 6 of all of the MLB while I have Houston ranked 8th. Advantage Astros.

Now let's look at the spot. The Astros have been playing horrible baseball for the better part of a week, going just 1-5 in their last 6 and being outscored 7-41, but I expect that to change against Young. The Astros just played the Orioles last week and won just 1/3, being shut out in both losses (their win being in Jason Alexander's start). They just traveled to Detroit to face the Tigers and got swept. In their most recent game in Detroit on Wednesday, starting pitcher Framber Valdez was shelled en route to giving up 6 runs in the first inning. They never clawed back as they ended up losing that game 2-7. After the disaster of a first inning, the Astros got to shift their focus to their upcoming series and save some arms for their matchup with the Orioles. They get to travel to a new ballpark and face a team that they just struggled against last week in the Baltimore Orioles. With 4 games set for the weekend, I expect the Astros to come out firing in tomorrow's matchup in hopes of starting this series on a high note. It should be noted that the Astros are battling with the Seattle Mariners for their division and while the Astros have struggled, so to have the Mariners. Seattle just wrapped up a 9 game road trip where they won just 2 of those games, dropping their final 5 of the trip. This has allowed Houston to maintain a 1.5 game lead in the division, but that won't last if they don't flip things around. With Seattle returning home, the urgency in the Astros locker room should be apparent. Speaking of returning home, that is what Baltimore is doing off of a 5 game road trip where they won 4/5 games. They took 2/3 against the Astros and are off of a 2 game sweep of the Red Sox in Boston. They now have a day off as they return home - a momentum stopper. When a team is rolling like the Orioles have been in the last week, I never like for them to have that day off. I think it messes with their routine and momentum and you often see a team struggle to keep winning after a day off. I never like a team returning home after a successful road trip as I think they turn their focus to their personal lives and lose focus on baseball. Now put together that they are set to face a team they just took a series against on the road and had the momentum stopping day off, this is a bad spot for the Orioles.

Everything in this matchup lines up for a massive play on the Astros. They have what I consider to be a huge starting pitching edge, with the Orioles pitcher being in a major fade spot. They have the bullpen edge, and they have a major spot edge as I look to play on teams in spots similar to what the Astros are in and fade spots similar to what Baltimore is in. We are playing the Houston Astros ML at a pickem price as a max bet on Thursday night and I would advise you to do so as well.