NFL Week 7 - Underdog Picks

When it comes to building winning lineups on Underdog, discipline is just as important as finding the right players. That’s why we keep our plays tight—sticking to just 3 legs. The math backs it up: the more legs you stack, the faster your odds drop. For example, even if each leg has a 60% chance of hitting (better than a coin flip), a 3-leg entry still has a 21.6% chance of cashing. Add a fourth leg, and it plummets to 12.9%. By the time you’re at 5 legs, you’re looking at just 7.7%—not exactly a recipe for consistency. In other words, chasing big payouts with long slips might look appealing, but the sharp strategy is keeping it short and maximizing your actual chances of walking away with a win.

Harold Fannin Jr HIGHER THAN 39.5 Rec Yards

Harold Fannin Jr. over 39.5 receiving yards is a strong play this week given the circumstances in Cleveland’s offense. With David Njoku sidelined and Cedric Tillman still on IR, Fannin has become Dillon Gabriel’s go-to option in the short and intermediate passing game. Gabriel clearly trusts him — Fannin saw a team-high 10 targets last week and accounted for 4 of Gabriel’s 19 completions in his first start. Now he faces a Miami defense that has been beatable through the air, especially against tight ends who can exploit the seams.

Drake Maye HIGHER THAN 1.5 Passing TDs

   Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns looks like one of the best prop plays on the slate. The rookie has been lights out through six games, throwing for 1,522 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions while completing 73.2% of his passes. He’s already gone over this mark in four of six games, showing impressive poise and red zone command. Now he faces a Titans defense that’s been one of the worst in the league against the pass — allowing high completion rates, poor pressure metrics, and consistent breakdowns in coverage. With Maye averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and showing growing chemistry with his receivers, this sets up as another efficient multi-touchdown outing against a defense that hasn’t proven capable of stopping anyone through the air.

Bijan Robinson HIGHER THAN 121.5 RSH+REC Yards

Bijan Robinson over 121.5 total yards feels like a big number — but he’s made a habit of smashing big numbers all season. The Falcons have been vocal about building their entire offense around Bijan, and the usage backs it up. He’s cleared this mark in four of five games, with two outings over 100 rushing yards and two more over 100 receiving yards, proving he can rack up production from anywhere on the field. Now he draws a banged-up 49ers defense that just lost Fred Warner and was already hovering around league average in most defensive metrics. With San Francisco’s front seven in disarray and Atlanta committed to feeding Bijan early and often, this sets up perfectly for another monster all-purpose performance from one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers.

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